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Terry Scholey's Monthly weather outlook. Terry is a midlands meteorologist and forecaster.
March is renowned for its variability and the coming month should be no exception. It should on the whole be somewhat drier and warmer than average particularly in the south, with bursts of spring before the equinox giving some afternoons especially in the east and south. Another bout of fine weather may occur during the final week, but this will probably be cooler, with a colder trend indicated after or around the 21st. Confidence is high for the first half, but only medium after the equinox when pressure may build towards Greenland.
March 1st to 4th: After a rather cold start with slight frost in places, patchy fog and some hill snow in the north, it becomes a little milder. There will be drier, brighter intervals, but an unsettled period brings occasional rain or showers with breezier conditions later as winds turn into the west or south west. Max temps 5 to 9C rising to 7 to 10C. Min temps -2 to +2C rising to 3 to 7C.
March 5th to 9th: Probably remaining breezy and somewhat unsettled over most of Scotland and Ireland, with showers in most parts at first. As pressure rises however, a finer spell is expected to develop particularly over the south and east of England and also The Midlands. Some warm afternoons are possible later, with top temps 9 to 12C in the north and west, but perhaps 15 to 17C in sheltered places elsewhere. The nights should be mild in the west, but perhaps somewhat colder in the east. Min temps say 5 to 8C in the west and 2 to 6C in the east.
March 10th to 15th: The fine' spell gives way to cloud and showers. Some grey, misty weather is possible for a time most likely in the east, before winds probably freshen later with perhaps gales over Scotland. It turns colder particularly later when the north could see sleet or hail in heavier blustery showers, with hill snow over Scotland. Max temps eventually 7 to 11C, with minimum values falling from 6 to 9C to between say 2 and 5C.
March 16th to 20th: Improving as pressure rises again, perhaps bringing increasing amounts of sunshine. There may be chilly nights at first but it should gradually become milder, with some warm afternoons possible later particularly in the east and south. Ireland and West Scotland may keep more cloud giving a few showers, but here too it should become pleasantly mild. Top temps later12 to 14C in the west, but perhaps as high as 17 to 20C in the east and south. Min temps 0 to 5C giving slight frost in places at first, rising to 6 to 9C.
March 21sth to 24th: Perhaps the beginning of a change of circulation type, as pressure begins to build across the north and west. It should be warm and bright at first in the east and south, before showers break-out some locally heavy perhaps giving thunder. Colder mostly cloudy weather elsewhere should then spread to all parts accompanied by a sharp drop in temperature and outbreaks of rain that may turn wintry on northern hills later. Max temps 10 to 17C falling to say 5 to 9C. Min temps 6 to 9C probably falling later to between 2 and 5C.
March 25th to 28th: An improvement seems likely as pressure rises for a time, giving another finer spell in most places. Sunny spells lengthen and with lighter breezes, temperatures rise again but with a fresher feel. As a result, it probably will not be as warm as in recent finer spells with top temps rising slowly to eventually reach say 13 to 16C. Min temps should mostly be in the range 3 to 8C.
March 29th to 31st: There are a couple of alternatives here, as it probably turns somewhat more unsettled and cooler again. It either becomes breezier in the north with showers mostly over Scotland or after a warmer interval, showers spread from the south west that could be heavy, perhaps accompanied by thunder. Top temps 10 to 14C falling to 8 to 11C, with minimum values mostly between say 4 and 8C.
28th February 2014 T.G.S.